Just two months ago when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the England international curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
