Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
